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Recapping the Pacers’ “Make or Break” Run February 26, 2009

Posted by pacejmiller in Basketball, Indiana Pacers, NBA.
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Will Coach O'Brien be blamed for another year where the Pacers miss the playoffs?

Will Coach O'Brien be blamed for another year where the Pacers miss the playoffs?

A while back, after the Indiana Pacers defeated the Houston Rockets on January 23, their record was an unimpressive 16-27, good for second last in the Eastern Conference.

However, I noted that the team was about to embark on a “make or break” stretch of the season, where 13 out of their next 17 games were against sub-0.500 teams (at least at the time) and 10 of those games were at home.  If the Pacers were going to have any chance of making the playoffs, this was the time for them to make a run for the top 8.

The Aftermath

So how have they done?  Well, it was, as the Pacers have been all season, mediocre.  For the softest patch of the season schedule, the Pacers went 9-8, boosting their record to 25-35, 12th in the East and 3 games behind the Milwaukee Bucks for the final playoff spot.

I said back then that, given the Pacers’ record at the time, 10-7 would be considered a moderate success.  Not unexpectedly, they fell just short. 

However, if you look at the actual games during the stretch, you may be surprised by where the wins and losses came from.  They managed to get 3 wins against Miami, Orlando and Cleveland, the teams they were supposed to lose to, and lost completely winnable games against New York (twice), Minnesota, Washington, Milwaukee (without Redd and Bogut) and Charlotte.  They also went 8-2 at home and 1-6 on the road.

During this stretch, All-Star Weekend flew by, the trade deadline passed and went without any deals (ie Tinsley), Danny Granger hurt his foot (out 3 weeks), and Mike Dunleavy declared his season over with the same injury that’s sidelined him for most of the season.

What now?

With just 22 games left, it’s not looking good for the Pacers.  According to Hollinger’s Playoff Odds, Indiana still has a 14.9% chance of making the playoffs, down from 23.4% before the start of the dream 17-game stretch.  But to do so, they need to go something like 14-8, which would be miraculous if they managed to even come close.  This would be the case even if they had Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy and no injuries to anyone else.

So, to summarise the “make of break” stretch of the season: They didn’t make much progress in the standings.  Their two top scorers Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy are out with injuries, the latter indefinitely.  They are about to enter a tough stretch where the next 10 games include teams such as Boston, Denver, Portland (x2), Utah, Atlanta and Dallas.  To top things off, they still have Jamaal Tinsley.  Another forgettable year for the Indiana Pacers.  Time to look forward to next season.  The only problem now is that they are winning some games, which won’t get them in the playoffs but will, once again, put them in a position to miss out on the top picks in next season’s draft.  Oh, and they still have to get rid of Jamaal Tinsley.

Pacers lose to Wolves; season over? February 4, 2009

Posted by pacejmiller in Basketball, Indiana Pacers, NBA.
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Granger scores but Pacers lose to Timberwolves

Granger scores but Pacers lose to Timberwolves

Am I jumping to conclusions here?  Or have I been dreaming for too long already?  Either way, with still 33 games to go, I’m ready to admit that the Pacers’ playoff hopes this season are just about over.

The Indiana Pacers lost their second consecutive ‘must-win’ home game to the Minnesota Timberwolves today, 116-111.  Danny Granger finally had a good game (28 points on 10-19 shooting) and Dunleavy played well too (20 points on 8-15 shooting), but something’s still missing with this team.  A relatively soft stretch still awaits this team, but they’ve failed to build the crucial momentum they need in these last few home games to make a realistic push in the standings.

They are now 19-30, 13th out of 15 teams in the East (thanks to an equally melting Toronto Raptors and the woeful Washington Wizards).  They’ve also slipped in the Hollinger Playoff Odds to 12th in the East, with only a 19.3% chance of making the playoffs.  According to Hollinger, the 8th seed in the East will need about 39 wins.  Even if the Pacers can finish above 0.500 the rest of the way (17-16), they’ll end up with a record of 36-46.  Doesn’t sound too hard, but just have a look at their winning percentage right now.  Maybe it’s time I finally realised they’re just simply not that good.  Unless they make some miraculous moves before the trade deadline, Pacer fans can start looking forward to the draft lottery for next season.

Pacers sweep Rockets – time for a charge? January 24, 2009

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Pacers win! But…

I was very excited to see that the Indiana Pacers managed to hold on against the Houston Rockets at home, 107-102.  This meant a season sweep against the Rockets (!), and improved their record to 16-27, still second worst in the East.

However, it was far from an impressive win at home.  The Rockets are a good team, but they were already missing stars Tracy McGray and Ron Artest, and the Pacers caught another break when remaining star Yao Ming injured his knee and sat out the second half.  Still, the Pacers shot poorly and almost managed to lose control of it towards the end.  If it weren’t for some accurate free throw shooting, they could have very easily lost the game.

The highlight was of course Danny Granger’s end-of-game stuff of Von Wafer’s dunk attempt that pretty much killed off any chance of a Rockets comeback.  Do yourself a favour and watch the video again and again below.

Can they make a charge?  Upcoming schedule says maybe…

ind2Talk all season has been about how tough the Pacers’ early schedule has been.  There is some truth to this – but when you’re as bad as the Pacers, pretty much every game is a tough one.  Really – if you run through their schedule game by game, you’ll notice there aren’t many games where you can say ‘they should win this one easily’ (and they sometimes lose those ones too).

However, this has not stopped recent chatter around the water cooler that the Pacers are finally to make a run for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  As of today, they are 16-27, 14th out of a possible 15 teams in the East.  In the 7th position is Philadelphia with a record of 20-21, and rounding off the top 8 is Milwaukee with 21-25.  New Jersey is 9th with 19-24. 

So it’s not that far-fetched that the Pacers could make the playoffs.  For some reason John Hollinger’s Playoff Odds constantly have the Pacers within striking distance of the playoffs.  Currently they are ranked 9th in the East, just out of the picture, with a 23.4% chance of still making it.  Are the Pacers really that much better than their record indicates?

Let’s look at their upcoming schdule (next 17 games): Charlotte, @Orlando, Milwaukee, Miami, New York, Minnesota, @Philadelphia, Orlando, @Washington, Cleveland, @Milwaukee, Philadelphia, @Charlotte, @Minnesota, Chicago, @Knicks, Memphis.

If this isn’t the time to make a run, then I don’t know what is.  Take out the 2 games against Orlando and the games against Cleveland and Miami – and you’ve got 13 upcoming games against sub-0.500 teams.  You’ve also got 10 home games against only 7 away games.  On top of that, Mike Dunleavy is starting to round into form, and TJ Ford and Marquis Daniels are supposedly almost recovered from their respective injuries.

However, Pacers fans need to keep their expectations in check.  What can be expected from this ‘soft’ patch?  12-5?  11-6? 10-7?

Out of the teams they play in this period, only Minnesota and Memphis actually have worse records than the Pacers.  Therefore, I would consider anything equal or better than 10-7 during this bunch of games a moderate success.  It’s not going to get them back in playoff contention just yet, but they could at least give themselves an opportunity down the home stretch.  Besides, you never know.  Momentum is a strange thing, so if the Pacers can string together a few victories early on they could easily move further up the ladder than anticipated.  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.