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Recapping the Pacers’ “Make or Break” Run February 26, 2009

Posted by pacejmiller in Basketball, Indiana Pacers, NBA.
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Will Coach O'Brien be blamed for another year where the Pacers miss the playoffs?

Will Coach O'Brien be blamed for another year where the Pacers miss the playoffs?

A while back, after the Indiana Pacers defeated the Houston Rockets on January 23, their record was an unimpressive 16-27, good for second last in the Eastern Conference.

However, I noted that the team was about to embark on a “make or break” stretch of the season, where 13 out of their next 17 games were against sub-0.500 teams (at least at the time) and 10 of those games were at home.  If the Pacers were going to have any chance of making the playoffs, this was the time for them to make a run for the top 8.

The Aftermath

So how have they done?  Well, it was, as the Pacers have been all season, mediocre.  For the softest patch of the season schedule, the Pacers went 9-8, boosting their record to 25-35, 12th in the East and 3 games behind the Milwaukee Bucks for the final playoff spot.

I said back then that, given the Pacers’ record at the time, 10-7 would be considered a moderate success.  Not unexpectedly, they fell just short. 

However, if you look at the actual games during the stretch, you may be surprised by where the wins and losses came from.  They managed to get 3 wins against Miami, Orlando and Cleveland, the teams they were supposed to lose to, and lost completely winnable games against New York (twice), Minnesota, Washington, Milwaukee (without Redd and Bogut) and Charlotte.  They also went 8-2 at home and 1-6 on the road.

During this stretch, All-Star Weekend flew by, the trade deadline passed and went without any deals (ie Tinsley), Danny Granger hurt his foot (out 3 weeks), and Mike Dunleavy declared his season over with the same injury that’s sidelined him for most of the season.

What now?

With just 22 games left, it’s not looking good for the Pacers.  According to Hollinger’s Playoff Odds, Indiana still has a 14.9% chance of making the playoffs, down from 23.4% before the start of the dream 17-game stretch.  But to do so, they need to go something like 14-8, which would be miraculous if they managed to even come close.  This would be the case even if they had Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy and no injuries to anyone else.

So, to summarise the “make of break” stretch of the season: They didn’t make much progress in the standings.  Their two top scorers Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy are out with injuries, the latter indefinitely.  They are about to enter a tough stretch where the next 10 games include teams such as Boston, Denver, Portland (x2), Utah, Atlanta and Dallas.  To top things off, they still have Jamaal Tinsley.  Another forgettable year for the Indiana Pacers.  Time to look forward to next season.  The only problem now is that they are winning some games, which won’t get them in the playoffs but will, once again, put them in a position to miss out on the top picks in next season’s draft.  Oh, and they still have to get rid of Jamaal Tinsley.

Trade deadline came and went, Tinsley still a Pacer February 20, 2009

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Tinsley is still a Pacer

Tinsley is still a Pacer

Disturbing…so very disturbing – Jamaal Tinsley is still an Indiana Pacer

Yesterday’s trade deadline saw a host of activities between 13 different NBA teams.  Players were going here and there and everywhere (and for some, eg Tyson Chandler, back again), but to be honest, there was nothing really worth noting.  The biggest had to be former Pacer Jermaine O’Neal’s swap with Shawn Marion (Toronto Raptors/Miami Heat), but no one’s expecting that trade to make much of a splash.  You can read about ESPN’s analysis of all trades here.

The team quietly missing from the list of teams that made trades was the Indiana Pacers.  You would think if any team needed a trade it would be them.  Jamaal Tinsley hasn’t played been near Conseco Fieldhouse all season and he’s being paid.  His name’s been removed from the lockers.  And yet for the Pacers, the trade deadline came and went like a fart in the wind.  Nothing.

WTF?

I, like most Pacers fans, expected Jamaal Tinsley to be gone a long time ago.  If not at the start of the season, then at least before the trade deadline.  I started getting nervous when the trade deadline began to approach and there were virtually no rumours surrounding the Pacers.  A couple of lacklustre trade suggestions with the Bobcats for Raymond Felton, and another even worse one involving the Miami Heat.  A tiny murmur when Tyson Chandler got shipped back to New Orleans.  That was it.  I looked everywhere for something, anything that would assure me that the Pacers would get rid of Tinsley (whom the NBA had filed a grievance on his behalf).  The more I looked, the more concerned I became.  Not just the lack of trade possibilities, but how crap those suggested trades were.  But I think all it demonstrated was that no one was interested in Tinsley or that the Pacers were asking too much for him (or unwilling to give up other pieces in order to get rid of him – eg Jeff Foster and Brandon Rush).

According to the official Pacers.com article about the trade deadline, looks were deceiving – the Pacers were trying really, really hard.  Larry Bird said: “We were everywhere.  We were very, very active with a number of teams. We just didn’t get anything done. It’s frustrating.”

Seriously, not good enough anymore.  They’ve had more than half a season to find a new home for Jamaal Tinsley and they’ve come up short.  With the team losing money, injuries mounting, the playoffs almost certainly out of reach, big bad contracts and a lack of talent, where do the Pacers go from here?

By the way, you can tell the Pacers were clearly frustrated when in the same article they took a cheap shot at Jermaine O’Neal:

Upon arrival in Miami, O’Neal called his new team “a perfect fit” and suggested the Heat has “a really good chance to do something special.”   Upon his arrival in Toronto a few months ago, O’Neal said much the same thing, suggesting the Raptors had “a shot at doing some great things.”   The Raptors, who won 41 games last season, have since fired Coach Sam Mitchell and stand 21-35, 14th in the Eastern Conference.

Real classy stuff by the Pacers to kick their former All-Star when he’s down.  Seems they are truly feeling the pain.

Where to now?

Like I said all along, the Pacers have no one else to blame but themselves.  The problem really started when last season ended.  The Pacers, who wanted to get rid of Tinsley back then, should have done all they could to trade him during the offseason, when he still had some value.  Instead, they tarnished his reputation by dwelling on his past indiscretions, his injury history, lack of commitment and leadership – essentially painting him as a team cancer – and saying he’ll never be an Indiana Pacer ever again.  What did the Pacers expect after this?  Teams to jump at Tinsley with their best players and expiring contracts?  It’s frustrating to see just how badly management has handled this situation.

Now that a grievance has been filed and Tinsley will be with the Pacers until at least the end of this season, things could get ugly if they went to an arbitrator.  Imagine if they ordered the Pacers to buy out Tinsley’s contract, something they had been unwilling to do from the beginning (as the contract would continue to count against them in the salary cap).  Then the Pacers would definitely be kicking themselves because they would have essentially lost Tinsley for nothing (except, well, a lot of money) and they could have done this at the start, when this issue hadn’t become such an annoying baggage on the team.

As a fan, things could not be worse.  The team still sucks, they’re hemorrhaging cash, they still have bad contracts, and they still have Jamaal Tinsley.  Even if they did have cap room, no superstar is going to consider coming to a small market place like Indiana.  The only thing they can do is trade, but no one wants to deal with them.  Looks like it will be at least another few years before the Pacers become competitive again.  Did the Detroit Brawl really generate that much bad karma for the Pacers?  Even after more than 4 years, they are still paying for it.

Oh, and Granger’s out for up to 3 weeks

Amidst all the Tinsley crap, I forgot to mention that the Pacers’ leading scorer, Danny Granger, is out for 10 days up to 3 weeks after a partial tendon tear in his right foot – sustained during their previous game against the Charlotte Bobcats.

This could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.  I mean, they’re already missing Dunleavy (probably for season) and Foster – and even when they had those guys they still couldn’t win any games.  Why not take the full three weeks for Granger to heal his troublesome right knee as well, and give the Pacers a chance at a top 5 pick next season – one that can help out immediately or be used as trade bait?  With virtually no chance of making the playoffs, why not start looking forward to next year?

Pacers lose to Wolves; season over? February 4, 2009

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Granger scores but Pacers lose to Timberwolves

Granger scores but Pacers lose to Timberwolves

Am I jumping to conclusions here?  Or have I been dreaming for too long already?  Either way, with still 33 games to go, I’m ready to admit that the Pacers’ playoff hopes this season are just about over.

The Indiana Pacers lost their second consecutive ‘must-win’ home game to the Minnesota Timberwolves today, 116-111.  Danny Granger finally had a good game (28 points on 10-19 shooting) and Dunleavy played well too (20 points on 8-15 shooting), but something’s still missing with this team.  A relatively soft stretch still awaits this team, but they’ve failed to build the crucial momentum they need in these last few home games to make a realistic push in the standings.

They are now 19-30, 13th out of 15 teams in the East (thanks to an equally melting Toronto Raptors and the woeful Washington Wizards).  They’ve also slipped in the Hollinger Playoff Odds to 12th in the East, with only a 19.3% chance of making the playoffs.  According to Hollinger, the 8th seed in the East will need about 39 wins.  Even if the Pacers can finish above 0.500 the rest of the way (17-16), they’ll end up with a record of 36-46.  Doesn’t sound too hard, but just have a look at their winning percentage right now.  Maybe it’s time I finally realised they’re just simply not that good.  Unless they make some miraculous moves before the trade deadline, Pacer fans can start looking forward to the draft lottery for next season.

Pacers beat Heat, leap from 14th to 12th January 31, 2009

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Mike Dunleavy Jr is officially back.  But what's the deal with the moustache?
Mike Dunleavy Jr is officially back. But what’s the deal with the moustache?

All smiles as Indiana overcomes Miami

It’s all good news today for the Indiana Pacers.

First, they beat the Miami Heat 114-103.  Secondly, Mike Dunleavy played 36 minutes and scored a season high 30 points, indicating a long-awaited return to last-season’s form.  Thirdly, newly annointed All-Star Danny Granger shook of concerns about his knee troubles (see my worried rant on this) and scored 19 points in 34 minutes.  Fourthly, not to be underestimated, seldom-used Maceo Baston finally got some game time and had 12 points and 7 rebounds in 19 minutes.  Why don’t they use this guy more?

Finally, a move in the standings

Most importantly, the Pacers finally made a move in the standings after improving their record to 19-28.  With the win, coupled with losses to the Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Bobcats, Indiana leapt 2 spots in the Eastern Conference playoff race from 14th to 12th (half a game ahead of Toronto and identical record with Charlotte but ahead on tie-breakers).  New Jersey, Chicago and New York (whom the Pacers play next) are in the next 3 spots, each other 20 wins.  Unfortunately Milwaukee, in the 8th and final spot, is still comfortably ahead on 23-27.

Can they keep going?

As great as this current run of sorts (4 wins in 5 games and 7 straight at home) looks at the moment, years of unrealistic expectations and disappointment as a Pacer fan have taught me to be extremely cautious.  Their last few wins have come from Houston (without Artest and McGrady, and Yao played only in the first half), Charlotte (no explanation necessary), Milwaukee (without Redd and Bogut) and Miami (Marion was out and Haslem got tossed after 2 technicals in the first quarter).

The good news is that the next 2 games are still at home – against New York and Minnesota (not good teams but they’ve been playing well and are formidable by the Pacers’ standards).  The bad news is that after an away game against Philadelphia (and I believe this game is winnable), they face Orlando again (this time at home but the outcome is just about guaranteed to be the same).  Nevertheless, if they can go into the Orlando game with a 5 game winning streak I will be more than satisfied.

Pacers sweep Rockets – time for a charge? January 24, 2009

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Pacers win! But…

I was very excited to see that the Indiana Pacers managed to hold on against the Houston Rockets at home, 107-102.  This meant a season sweep against the Rockets (!), and improved their record to 16-27, still second worst in the East.

However, it was far from an impressive win at home.  The Rockets are a good team, but they were already missing stars Tracy McGray and Ron Artest, and the Pacers caught another break when remaining star Yao Ming injured his knee and sat out the second half.  Still, the Pacers shot poorly and almost managed to lose control of it towards the end.  If it weren’t for some accurate free throw shooting, they could have very easily lost the game.

The highlight was of course Danny Granger’s end-of-game stuff of Von Wafer’s dunk attempt that pretty much killed off any chance of a Rockets comeback.  Do yourself a favour and watch the video again and again below.

Can they make a charge?  Upcoming schedule says maybe…

ind2Talk all season has been about how tough the Pacers’ early schedule has been.  There is some truth to this – but when you’re as bad as the Pacers, pretty much every game is a tough one.  Really – if you run through their schedule game by game, you’ll notice there aren’t many games where you can say ‘they should win this one easily’ (and they sometimes lose those ones too).

However, this has not stopped recent chatter around the water cooler that the Pacers are finally to make a run for a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  As of today, they are 16-27, 14th out of a possible 15 teams in the East.  In the 7th position is Philadelphia with a record of 20-21, and rounding off the top 8 is Milwaukee with 21-25.  New Jersey is 9th with 19-24. 

So it’s not that far-fetched that the Pacers could make the playoffs.  For some reason John Hollinger’s Playoff Odds constantly have the Pacers within striking distance of the playoffs.  Currently they are ranked 9th in the East, just out of the picture, with a 23.4% chance of still making it.  Are the Pacers really that much better than their record indicates?

Let’s look at their upcoming schdule (next 17 games): Charlotte, @Orlando, Milwaukee, Miami, New York, Minnesota, @Philadelphia, Orlando, @Washington, Cleveland, @Milwaukee, Philadelphia, @Charlotte, @Minnesota, Chicago, @Knicks, Memphis.

If this isn’t the time to make a run, then I don’t know what is.  Take out the 2 games against Orlando and the games against Cleveland and Miami – and you’ve got 13 upcoming games against sub-0.500 teams.  You’ve also got 10 home games against only 7 away games.  On top of that, Mike Dunleavy is starting to round into form, and TJ Ford and Marquis Daniels are supposedly almost recovered from their respective injuries.

However, Pacers fans need to keep their expectations in check.  What can be expected from this ‘soft’ patch?  12-5?  11-6? 10-7?

Out of the teams they play in this period, only Minnesota and Memphis actually have worse records than the Pacers.  Therefore, I would consider anything equal or better than 10-7 during this bunch of games a moderate success.  It’s not going to get them back in playoff contention just yet, but they could at least give themselves an opportunity down the home stretch.  Besides, you never know.  Momentum is a strange thing, so if the Pacers can string together a few victories early on they could easily move further up the ladder than anticipated.  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.