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Prediction: Mayweather vs Mosley May 1, 2010

Posted by pacejmiller in Boxing.
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As a Manny Pacquiao fan, I am somewhat disappointed that Floyd Mayweather Jr will not be taking on the pound for pound king on May 1st.  However, as a boxing fan, I am ecstatic that Mayweather will be facing Shane Mosley at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas instead.

Usually before a fight, I have an inkling as to who will win.  Of course, it’s not always correct in the end, but at least I can make up my mind.  In this case, I am truly stumped.  I’ve considered all the variables and the advantages and disadvantages of each boxer over the last couple of weeks, but I still can’t decide who will win.  Set out below are some thoughts I have of the matchup, which will hopefully lead to a conclusive prediction on who will be victorious this Saturday night.

(Click on ‘more’ to read the analysis and prediction!)

Tale of the Tape

Mayweather

Record: 40-0 (25)

Age: 33

Height: 5’8″

Reach: 72″

Mosley

Record: 46-5 (39)

Age: 38

Height: 5’9″

Reach: 74″

Mayweather’s Advantages

Youth, hand speed, foot speed, defense, stamina, counter punching, ability to adjust on the fly, familiarity with corner (uncle Roger Mayweather).

Mosley’s Advantages

Power, size, reach, heart, chin, endurance, offense, experience, insightful corner (Nazeem Richardson who discovered Margarito’s illegal hand wraps).

Analysis and Prediction

This is one of those fights where no one really knows until the two get in the ring and start fighting.  There are so many unanswered questions that can’t be answered just by guessing.

Mayweather fans insist Mosley is just another guy who thinks he can beat Floyd (like the other 40 times someone has stepped in the ring with him).  They say Mayweather will be too fast, too slick for the older Mosley, and he will expose him as an overrated fighter who has already lost five times.  Mayweather will figure out Mosley’s style while he picks his shots, jabs and counters his way to an easy unanimous decision.  Some say perhaps Mayweather has already gotten into Mosley’s head with his continuous references to the performance enhancing drugs Mosley admitted to using years ago when he fought Oscar De La Hoya for the second time.  Mosley’s performance against Margarito was an anomaly, they say, and it made him look good only because Margarito didn’t have loaded gloves and his style was perfect for Mosley’s looping right hands.  Money Mayweather will win and he will make it look easy, but even then, people won’t give him props because they’ll say Mosley grew old overnight.

On the other hand, Mosley fans believe he is the man that will hand Mayweather and his big mouth his first professional loss.  Mayweather has never faced anyone like Mosley before, someone with his perfect combination of speed, power, durability and heart.  Besides, Mosley has gotten into Floyd’s head — why else would he not shut up about the drug controversy which happened so many years ago and is irrelevant now because they have undergone Mayweather’s foolproof Olympic-style blood testing?  Why else would Mayweather insist on a rematch clause in the contract if he is so confident he will win?  Mosley fans say Shane will bully Floyd around the ring with his superior strength, size and reach, and keep him on the back foot for the entire fight.  Mayweather will be exposed as an overrated fighter who ducked his way to a perfect record, which means nothing because he hasn’t fought anyone worthy.  If Mayweather retreats and covers up all night, he may survive, but he’ll lose a lopsided decision.  If he decides to engage, he could very well get knocked out.

So which one of these two versions will turn out to be correct?  Beats me.

Conventional wisdom tells us that Floyd Mayweather Jr has all the key advantages.  At 33, Mayweather may have slowed a little from his youth, but he’s still one of the fastest — if not the fastest — boxer in the welterweight division today.  Mosley is no slow coach himself, but at 38, the speed advantage is clearly on Mayweather’s side.  I also have doubts that at 38, and not having fought since the Margarito fight in January 2009, Mosley’s body can do everything his mind tells him to do.

So logic is pointing towards an inevitable Money Mayweather victory.  This is consistent with the betting odds, which has Mayweather as a 4-1 favourite, and most of the boxing experts who are predicting Mayweather to win by decision.

But what the heck, I am going with my guy, which is telling me that it’ll be a Mosley victory.  There, I said it.  Shane Mosley will hand Floyd Mayweather his first professional loss!  Maybe…

Boxing is the most unpredictable sport in the world.  I mean, just take a look at some of the biggest fights in recent memory.  Oscar De La Hoya was supposed to massacre Manny Pacquiao, but it turned out to be the other way around.  Cotto was supposed to beat Margarito, who ended up beating him into submission.  Margarito was supposed to annihilate old Shane Mosley, but it was Mosley who knocked out the cheat.  Kelly Pavlik was supposed to dominate Bernard Hopkins, but it was Hopkins who battered Pavlik around the ring for 12 rounds.  Roy Jones Jr was supposed to beat Danny Green, but he got knocked out in a single round.  There’s plenty more, but you get what I’m saying.  Not only can so-called experts get the winner wrong, they can get everything wrong.

Well I’m no expert, but I’ll take a wild guess anyway as to how I see the fight playing out.  I can see Mosley stalking Mayweather from the opening bell, but in a cautious, respectful manner.  Floyd will try and take single pot shots here and there, and will be effective in beating Shane to the punch as long as he remains busy and active.  But I can also see Mosley gradually wearing Mosley down, thumping him with body shots and hammering his arms and shoulders every time Mayweather covers up or executes the shoulder roll.  With Shane’s iron chin and Floyd’s brittle hands, I think Mosley will be willing to take some risks and get nailed a few times just to land some effective shots of his own.  I don’t see Mosley ever being hurt in this fight.  Accordingly, he will keep coming and coming, throwing lots and lots of punches, even if most of them don’t find the mark, until the final bell.  But as long as he keeps pressuring Mayweather and outwork him, I think Mosley can eke out a tough decision in the end.

A lot of what happens will depend on how Mayweather approaches the fight.  If he takes the first few rounds off to try and figure out Mosley’s style, it could really work against him, because by the time he figures it out he may already be too far behind.  On the other hand, if Mayweather comes out strong straight away and stays sharp all the way through, he could be the one on his way to a decision victory.  The only way I see this fight ending in KO is if Mosley can break Mayweather down enough so that Mayweather can no longer evade his big right overhand (or if Mosley gets lucky and lands one on Mayweather’s jaw), or if Mayweather catches Mosley with a big counter (like he did against Hatton) and seriously hurts him before finishing him off.

Either way, I think we’re in for a good fight.  Mayweather will do whatever he needs to win, but I think Mosley will be very active and keep things both interesting and entertaining.

May the winner get the big pay day against Manny Pacquiao!

[PS: Crap just watching the highlight reels again I feel like maybe Floyd will win…argh!  Just fight already!]

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Comments»

1. USS Fort Mac - May 1, 2010

Mosley actually has the handspeed over Floyd… Floyd just has faster head movements… If you see Shane’s combo’s, they’re faster than Floyd’s… As a matter of fact brotha… Mosley’s combo’s against Margarito were faster than Mayweather’s combo’s against “Chop Chop” Corley… And that was recent compared to long ago… HOWEVER… I see Mayweather pulling a victory… I see him confusing Mosley the whole fight… I’m a true Mosley fan, but as much as I want him to pull out a victory, I just can’t see it. I’ll pray for it though.

pacejmiller - May 1, 2010

Good analysis man. Watching footage of Mayweather’s fights you really get a sense of how great he is defensively. It’s not just the shoulder roll and the head movement, but also his ability to control the distance — to get as far away as possible in a hurry if he needs to or instantly move close and use his arms and elbows so that you can get a shot off against him. Mosley does tend to telegraph a lot of his big shots, so the possibility that Mayweather will frustrate him is very high. Mosley has to fight a tactical fight to have a chance, at least in the earlier rounds, keeping pressure with jabs and body shots but not rushing in and throwing wild punches. I’m hoping for a Mosley victory too because I can’t see Mayweather-Pacquiao happening at this stage and I think Mosley-Pacquiao would be one heck of a fight!

2. Prediction: Mayweather Jr vs Marquez « About Writing – The Personal Blog of Pace J Miller - May 1, 2010

[…] Prediction: Mayweather Jr vs Marquez September 18, 2009 Posted by pacejmiller in Boxing. Tags: Floyd Mayweather Jr, JMM, Juan Manuel Marquez, Manny Pacquiao, Marquez, Mayweather, Pacquiao, prediction, Ricky Hatton, tale of the tape trackback [For my prediction of Mayweather-Mosley, click here] […]

3. Mayweather Outclasses Mosley; Is Pacquiao the Only One That Can Beat Him? « About Writing – The Personal Blog of Pace J Miller - May 2, 2010

[…] So much for my prediction. […]


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