Pacquiao-Mayweather: it’s all about the nickname November 22, 2009
Posted by pacejmiller in Boxing.Tags: Floyd Mayweather, Floyd Mayweather Jr, Freddie Roach, Manny Pacquiao, Marquez, Mayweather, Mayweather vs Pacquiao, Miguel Cotto, Pacquiao, Pacquiao vs Mayweather, prediction
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Mayweather-Pacquiao: it's gotta be done
The fans want it. HBO’s president Ross Greenburg promises it. Top Rank chief Bob Arum says he would be an idiot to not make it. Freddie Roach has been wanting it for some time (and thinks Pacquiao will definitely KO Mayweather). Rugged Man demands it**. The fighters? Well, they haven’t really said they don’t want it.
Pacquiao will always espouse that crappy ‘I let my promoter decide who I fight’ line, but at least he has said he’s willing to fight anybody and when asked point blank in a recent interview he said for the record that he wants to fight Mayweather. And besides, if both Arum and Roach are determined to make it happen, then that effectively equates to Manny wanting the fight.
Therefore, the way I see it, whether the ultimate boxing match between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr will happen may depend on which of Floyd’s two nicknames he wants to adopt: ‘Money’ or ‘Pretty Boy’.
If Floyd is all about the ‘Money’ (as he claims to be), then there’s no way this fight won’t get done. Initial reports indicate that a fight between the two biggest names in boxing at the moment who also happen to be the top 2 pound-for-pound fighters in the world (how rare is that?), would surely challenge if not smash the PPV record set by De La Hoya-Mayweather in May 2007 (2.44 million PPV buys). There is not a single fight out there between any two living fighters that would generate anywhere close to the type of money that Pacquiao-Mayweather would make. Even with a 50-50 purse split (discussed further below), Mayweather would make more than double what he could make going 70-30 with any other fighter in the world.
On the other hand, if Floyd wants to remain a ‘Pretty Boy’, he can keep on ranting about how boxing ‘is a business’ or ‘doesn’t work like that’ and that he won’t do business with Bob Arum (his former promoter with whom he had a difficult falling out). Or, as Freddie Roach best put it: “When [Mayweather] says he wants 65 percent of the revenue, that’s like saying he doesn’t want to fight.” Not saying that Floyd can’t get the ‘Money’ and remain a ‘Pretty Boy’ by outclassing Pacquiao without taking a beating, but there’s no way Floyd thinks that it will be a walk in the park for him. He’s seen Diaz, De La Hoya, Hatton and Cotto. All of them (except Hatton who went out too early) looked like they had been through meat grinders after the fight. His father, Floyd Sr, is so traumatised by Pacquiao’s dominance that he has accused the Filipino superstar of being on performance-enhancing drugs.
So does Mayweather even want the fight?
I think he does, even if it’s just for the money. As made abundantly clear on his heated interview with Rugged Man, Mayweather doesn’t care about his legacy. Actually, he already believes that his legacy (as one of the greatest of all time) is set in stone. Perhaps, but if he doesn’t end up fighting Pacquiao or (to a lesser extent) Shane Mosley, that legacy will be tarnished forever. Mayweather has already carved out a reputation as a dodger of dangerous opponents (regardless of whether the reputation has merit). A single bout against Pacquiao which Mayweather says he can easily win will go a long way towards erasing that reputation, and more importantly, will make Floyd more money than he’s ever seen. No one doubts that Mayweather has the ability to beat Pacquiao, which is what makes his reluctance so frustrating.
Maybe it’s just posturing to put himself in the best position when the time comes to talk about the purse split. Maybe he just wants to stir up more controversy and paint himself as the ‘bad guy’ for more publicity for the fight. Maybe’s he’s genuinely afraid of Pacquiao. Or maybe he’s just a douche. Regardless, Floyd Mayweather Jr has been mouthing off about Manny Pacquiao since the Filipino’s impressive victory over Miguel Cotto.
“I’m in a no-win situation,” Mayweather said. “If I beat Manny Pacquiao you know what they are going to say? ‘You are supposed to beat him, you are Floyd Mayweather, you are the bigger man.’ If I knock him out they’ll say, ‘You’re supposed to knock him out [because] he’s been knocked out before.’ I’m in a no-win situation and when I beat him no one is going to be surprised because he’s been beaten before. Whatever I do to Pacquiao has been done before. He’s been beaten on three occasions. And if I knock him out I don’t want the world shouting because he’s been knocked out twice before.”
When Floyd Mayweather Jr says fighting Pacquiao is a “no-win situation” for him, all it is doing is make him look like he is looking for a way out.
Floyd has also been trying to shift the blame to Pacquaio in case the fight doesn’t happen. As quoted in Dan Rafael’s blog at ESPN, Mayweather says that Pacquiao doesn’t want to fight him because Manny knows he can’t beat Floyd. Despite not having said once that he wants to fight Pacquiao, Mayweather is now saying that Manny has not come out and said publicly he wants a piece of Floyd. This may be true, but Pacquiao doesn’t need to. Arum makes Pacquiao’s fights and Arum has made it unequivocally clear that he will do everything he can to make the Mayweather bout happen. In contrast, according his own words, Mayweather is his “own boss”, speaks for himself and “tell it like it is.” This actually makes Floyd look worse because it just means it has been his own personal choice to dodge all the top, prime welterweights, and that if a fight with Pacquiao doesn’t happen, it’s because Floyd doesn’t want it to.
In response, Bob Arum simply said: “All I want to say is that my guy [Pacquiao] has said, ‘We’re here, we’re ready to fight Mayweather.’ “ This was confirmed in the link above to the video interview.
In the end, I don’t think Floyd really has a choice. Neither does Manny for that matter. If either one of them backs out from this fight to take on another boxer (or retire), especially when all the stars are seemingly aligned, there will be so much public backlash and animosity against that man that it will have a permanent impact on his reputation and career.
Purse and weight negotiations
The logical purse split for a fight of this magnitude is 50-50. Most commentators are now of the opinion that this will not be difficult to achieve given the amount of money that is at stake.
From Pacquaio’s side, the man doing the negotiating is obviously Top Rank’s Bob Arum. And on Mayweather’s side, Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy will represent Floyd (as Floyd has signed a 5-fight deal with them). Al Haymon and Leonard Ellerbe are Floyd’s advisers who will liaise closely with Schaefer to ensure the negotiations reflect Floyd’s intentions.
There will probably be a bit of back and forth with both sides arguing that they should get he lion’s share of the purse. Mayweather’s camp will argue that he is undefeated and that his PPV numbers against their common opponents (De La Hoya, Hatton and Marquez) were better than Pacquiao’s. On the other hand, Pacquiao’s camp will argue that Manny’s most recent PPV numbers (the Cotto fight did at least 1.25 million buys) are more impressive than Floyd’s (the Marquez fight did 1.05 million PPV buys) and that when Mayweather fought De La Hoya and Hatton, the global financial crisis hadn’t struck yet. Plus, Marquez really only made a name for himself because he was in two very tight contests against Pacquiao.
I believe they will settle on 50-50 in the end. Both Mayweather and Arum’s egos are too big to allow the other to get even a couple of percentage points on them. And honestly, I think 50-50 is a fair result. There is no doubt that Pacquiao is the bigger international superstar at the moment and is by far the more exciting fighter, but Floyd is an equally big draw because he’s also a crossover star and people would pay to see him lose.
As for the weight, there shouldn’t be much controversy. 147 pounds. Pacquiao may try to seek a Cotto-esque weight of 145, but as we have seen Mayweather’s fight with Marquez, Floyd doesn’t really care about the contracted weight restrictions. The weight should be a big advantage for Mayweather as we know that Manny maxes out at around 148 on fight night whereas Floyd, who refused to be re-weighed for the Marquez fight, should be at least 155.
Preliminary prediction
So assuming this megafight will happen some time around May 2010, it’s time to make a preliminary prediction.
I just want to preface this by saying that there is no point comparing the Manny Pacquaio of the past to the Manny Pacquiao of now. Too often I see people downplaying Pacquiao’s chances in this fight based on what happened to him more than 10 years ago (when he suffered 2 KO losses and a draw as a weight-drained Flyweight or Bantamweight) , against Erik Morales (who won their first encounter via decision but was knocked out in the 2 rematches), and against Juan Manuel Marquez (with whom Pacquiao had a draw and split decision win over, though both were questionable). Morales was Pacquiao’s last loss and it was more than 4 years ago when Pacquiao was at super featherweight (130 pounds). The two fights against Marquez were at featherweight (126 pounds) and super featherweight (130 pounds). Pacquiao is a true 140-147 pounder now, and he is much better at this weight. He has somehow managed to increase his speed, power and endurance, and he is now significantly more experienced, patient, and obedient when it comes to following Freddie Roach’s game plans. There’s just no comparison. If he fought the fat, old Marquez we saw against Mayweather now…well, I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
As for the Pacquiao-Mayweather, it’s a tough call, but I see three possible scenarios. The first is that Floyd Mayweather Jr is simply too big and too skilled, and just outboxes Pacquiao with his superior reach and defense to claim an easy points decision victory, kind of in the same mould as the Marquez fight. Floyd has a 5 inch reach advantage (72-67) on Pacquiao, and is the naturally bigger man with phenomenal speed and an awkwardness that will frustrate any fighter. Pacquiao has never fought someone as quick, skilled and big as Mayweather, and it could prove to be a gap too wide.
However, I cannot see Floyd knocking out Pacquiao unless Manny loses his cool and is tagged by a big counter (like when Mayweather KO’ed Hatton). In his last few fights, Pacquiao has demonstrated a vastly improved defense and plenty of caution and discipline. He no longer jumps in recklessly and rarely leaves himself wide open, so the chances of a counter-punch KO are slim. Besides, Pacquiao showed in the Cotto fight that he can take a punch at welterweight. I have since watched the Cotto fight a couple more times, and Manny really got tagged with some nasty shots. Stiff jabs, jolting uppercuts, ripping body blows. And he took them all. Pacquiao had a busted ear drum to go with bad swelling from the fight. He could have used his trademark in-and-out style all night to beat Cotto but instead chose to stand his ground and take the shots head on. As he said, he wanted to test Cotto’s power, and he passed the test with flying colours. There is no way Mayweather hits harder than Cotto. With Floyd’s brittle hands, there’s just no way.
On the other hand, the second and third scenarios I see both have Manny Pacquiao emerging as the victor – either by unanimous decision or KO. Pacquiao has comparable hand speed to Mayweather and possibly better foot speed, and definitely more power. Floyd may be a defensive specialist, but Manny is an offensive specialist. I can see a situation where Pacquiao utilises his seemingly endless energy to pressure Mayweather all night and keep raining rapid combos down on him. Floyd may bob and weave and shoulder roll and block, but every blow that connects will count. Floyd may be fantastic at toying with guys that can only throw 1 or 2 punches at a time from orthodox angles, but it remains to be seen how he can handle someone like Pacquiao – a tireless freak with speed and power in both hands that attacks in 3, 4, 5, 6 punch combinations from angles you just don’t expect and don’t see coming (just ask Miguel Cotto).
This assessment is somewhat similar to what Freddie Roach said on ESPN: “Whatever Floyd gives us, we’ll take. Manny will [hit] him on the arms, the shoulders, wherever he can, and Mayweather will feel it. There’s no way Mayweather can win the fight running, and that’s what he does best.”
Zab Judah was probably the closest thing to Pacquiao that Mayweather has fought, but he was too undisciplined and has a soft jaw. And let’s not forget, Judah hit Mayweather with quite a few shots early on in that fight (including a genuine knockdown that wasn’t counted), but didn’t have the resiliency or stamina to carry it through to the end.
Jose Luis Castillo, who lost 2 decisions to Mayweather (the first of which some thought he won – though Mayweather had a shoulder injury at the time), sparred with Pacquiao in the lead up to the Cotto fight, and said that Pacquiao is faster and hits way harder than Mayweather. And this is the Pacquiao at 144 pounds compared to the Mayweather at lightweight (135 pounds). Maybe he’s still bitter about his first fight with Mayweather, but if there’s any truth to what Castillo said, then Mayweather could be in for a long night.
Accordingly, in my Pacquiao-wins scenario, if Floyd runs, I see him losing a decision. If he stands his ground, I see him getting knocked out.
So which of the 3 scenarios is most likely? At this stage I have to go what would appear to be the most unlikely – Pacquiao by KO! People may say that Mayweather’s style will give Pacquiao fits but the same could be said the other way around. If Pacquiao stays patient and keeps the pressure on and is disciplined with his approach, I think he can win. Otherwise it just means Floyd Mayweather Jr is really that good. And after watching some of Floyd’s past fights on YouTube, I would not be surprised if he is. The guy is truly amazing.
At the end of the day, I have a feeling that the Cotto fight will be the reason Pacquiao will win. Floyd took an easy fight in ‘lightweight’ Marquez, and Pacquiao took the hard fight in Cotto, and I believe that will ultimately be the difference.
** For those who don’t already know, Rugged Man is an emcee who recently OWNED Mayweather on radio for 20 minutes. Essentially, he took it right to Mayweather from the start about avoiding the big fights and said what has been on every non-Mayweather-ballhugger’s mind for years. YouTube ‘Rugged Man’ and ‘Mayweather’ and listen to it. It’s not only revealing but also extraordinarily hilarious.
Pacquiao shreds Cotto; TKO round 12 November 15, 2009
Posted by pacejmiller in Boxing.Tags: Analysis, Cotto, Diamond Belt, Fire Power, Floyd Mayweather Jr, Freddie Roach, Manny Pacquiao, Miguel Cotto, Pacquiao, Pacquiao vs Cotto, result
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Pacquiao TKOs Cotto to win his 7th world title in as many weight classes
I just got home from the pub after witnessing Manny Pacquiao TKO Miguel Cotto in the final round of 12 exciting rounds of boxing. With the win, Pacquiao collected his 7th world title in as many weight divisions, a new record. He also snatched Cotto’s WBO welterweight belt (even though the fight took place 2 pounds below the welterweight limit of 147) and added some stupid, pointless WBC ‘Diamond Belt’ to his collection.
The fight lived up to the name ‘Fire Power’ – Cotto was a very game opponent that just ran into a buzzsaw by the name of Manny Pacquiao that bruised, battered and sliced him up. By the time the fight was mercifully stopped 55 seconds into the 12th and final round, Cotto’s face was a swollen, bloody mess. Cotto’s white shorts were dyed pink and Pacquiao’s body was littered with dry speckles of Cotto’s blood.
Cotto's face was a mess
I know it sounds like a one-sided affair, but it wasn’t, not at least for the first half of the fight. Cotto had his moments, especially early on. He scared Pacquiao fans in the first round (which I think Cotto won easily) with his devastating power, as even blocked punches lifted Pacquiao’s feet off the canvas. It certainly got the attention of the people I watched the fight with at the pub (95% of which were pro-Pacquiao). A number of them voiced that it may be a long night for Manny.
In the second round, Pacquiao began throwing his lightning quick combinations, and I think it was enough to earn him the round. However, it was an uneasy round, especially whenever Cotto backed Pacquiao up against the ropes, which was happening more regularly than trainer Freddie Roach would have liked. Pacquiao would hold his hands up high while Cotto pounded him on the waistline and face. Even if most of them were blocked (at least partially), it gave me the feeling that Cotto was going to wear Pacquiao down eventually.
The third round was more of the same, with Cotto pounding away and Pacquiao blocking patiently and picking his spots, unleashing rapid combos at all angles whenever the opportunity arose. Then suddenly, Cotto was down! It was a lightning quick right hand and the end of a combo that caught Cotto on the jaw, dropping him to one knee. However, it was just a flash knockdown, and Cotto came back hard for the remainder of that round. Even though Pacquiao won that round with the knockdown, there was question over whether it should have been scored 10-8 or 10-9.
Up to that stage, it was still a close fight. I had the feeling that if Cotto caught Manny with a flush power shot, it could be all over in a hurry. But even if he didn’t, Cotto still had the tools to box his way to a victory. That was how things looked at the time. But then, towards the end of the 4th round, Cotto walked in and Pacquiao unloaded a huge left hand that rocked Cotto and put him down for the second time. This one wasn’t a flash knockdown. You could tell from Cotto’s wobbly legs that he was definitely hurt. If it had happened earlier in the round, Pacquiao could have very well finished him off right there.
Cotto was not the same after the second knockdown
In his corner, Cotto was spitting blood and a small cut had appeared under his right eye. He was desperate for air and his eyes were beginning to swell shut. In the other corner, Pacquiao looked like he was just warming up, though he seemed to be still focused on the game plan.
From that point on, Cotto just wasn’t the same. He put in a good effort for the start of the 5th, but Pacquiao’s speedy combinations proved the difference. Without watching the fight again, I can’t recall exactly when it happened, but at some stage in the second half of the bout, Pacquiao suddenly became the aggressor. It was a complete role reversal. Pacquiao, the smaller man, was backing Cotto up, and Cotto, the supposedly stronger boxer, was back-pedaling more than De La Hoya did against Trinidad. By this point, Cotto was simply trying to survive until the end. Every time Pacquiao had Cotto in the corner or against the roles, it looked like Pacquiao would end the fight right there, but to his credit, Cotto somehow managed to evade danger time after time.
Pacquiao was still sticking to the game plan and fighting with caution, though I’m not sure Cotto even had a puncher’s chance from the 8th round onwards. He still had heart but his will was gone. It was just a question of whether he’d be able to survive till the final bell. Pacquiao was visibly frustrated by Cotto’s dancing and unwillingness to engage with him, at times standing still and dropping his hands, as though questioning Cotto whether he really wanted to continue.
Cotto back-pedaled his way into the 12th round. Pacquiao continued to be semi-cautious, but was definitely going for the knockout. About 50 seconds into the round, Pacquiao finally caught up to Cotto and trapped him against the ropes. Another combination flooded down upon Cotto, though most of them were probably blocked. Pacquiao was ready for more, but referee Kenny Bayless stepped in to protect Cotto, calling the fight with 2 minutes and 5 seconds to go. I thought it was a questionable stoppage as Cotto may have been able to survive till the end, but there was no doubt that Manny Pacquiao would have won the fight by a wide margin if it went to the scorecards.
Pacquaio landed 336/780 (43%) punches overall, including 276/560 (49%) power punches. As Cotto barely threw any punches for the last third of the bout, he only landed 172/597 (29%) in total punches, with 93/300 (31%) in power punches.
In the end, all the talk about Pacquiao’s disrupted training camp, Cotto’s inexperienced trainer and everything in between didn’t really manifest in the fight. Cotto gave Pacquiao more trouble than David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton (Pacquiao’s last 3 opponents) combined, but Manny was still a cut above him. And the catch weight of 145 pounds had little effect – Cotto looked better than he ever had at the weigh-in and on the night of the fight. It was evidently a very successful weight management campaign, which probably led to Cotto having up to 10 pounds on Pacquiao by the time they entered the ring. It made no difference in the end.
Bring on Floyd Mayweather Jr!
Cotto was very gracious in defeat, approaching and hugging Pacquiao. “I didn’t know from where the punches were coming,” Cotto said later before heading to the hospital for tests. “Manny Pacquiao is one of the best boxers I ever fought.”
As for the new welterweight champion and pound-for-pound king, there is only one fight fans want to see. As Freddie Roach said: “I want to see him fight Mayweather.”
Fight Prediction: Pacquiao vs Cotto November 14, 2009
Posted by pacejmiller in Boxing.Tags: 24/7, Analysis, Cotto vs Pacquiao, Fire Power, Freddie Roach, Joe Santiago, Manny Pacquiao, Miguel Cotto, Pacquiao vs Cotto, prediction
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I’ve been thinking about the upcoming November 14 fight between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto ever since it was announced in July. However, I refrained from making an early prediction because I wanted to wait and check out how each boxer was progressing in training and whether they had any distractions that were going to cause problems when fight time rolled around. With just a day to go, I believe it is time I throw in my 2 cents and predict a winner. [Apologies for the length, but after all this thinking I need to have something to show for it.]
Manny Pacquiao
The Pound-for-Pound King
Given the meteoric rise of Manny Pacquiao after his last few fights, it would have been easy to forget everything and just predict another crushing Pacquiao victory. It’s easy for naysayers to rip into De La Hoya and Hatton after Pacquiao annihilates them, but let’s not forget Pacquiao was a massive underdog in the De La Hoya fight and though he was the the favourite against Hatton, several experts thought Ricky would rough Manny up and even knock him out. So much for that.
We’ve seen Pacquiao at 147, when he utilised his blistering speed to perfection against the over-matched shell of Oscar De La Hoya. We’ve also seen him at 140, when he utilised his devastating power to brutally mash up Ricky Hatton’s brain. So how will be perform at the catch-weight of 145? Long-time trainer Freddie Roach admitted that 140 is Pacquiao’s best weight, but as long as his speed is not affected (which it wasn’t at 147), the additional 5 pounds can only add to Pacquiao’s power and durability. There was never any doubt that Pacquiao has the speed advantage over Cotto, but a question mark hovers over his ability to absorb punishment against a naturally bigger and stronger man arguably in his prime. None of Pacquiao’s last 3 opponents (Hatton, De La Hoya and David Diaz) had the power and resilience that Miguel Cotto possesses, and it will be interesting to see how Pacquiao handles this test.
In his blog at Ring magazine, Oscar De La Hoya predicted a Miguel Cotto victory. That’s a big call considering Pacquiao embarrassed De La Hoya into retirement. But then again, this is Oscar De La Hoya, the man/promoter who spews more shit than any man on the planet. The same De La Hoya who predicted himself to KO Pacquiao, Ricky Hatton to KO Pacquaio, Juan Manuel Marquez to beat Floyd Mayweather Jr and Chris Arreola to beat Vitali Klitschko.
Want more? How’s this for delusion? This is what De La Hoya wrote:
Pacquiao doesn’t hit hard enough to knock anyone out in the welterweight division. I’m basing that on my fight against Pacquiao. I could’ve stood there and put my face in front of him and he couldn’t have hurt me.
Mmm…standing still and putting his face in front of Pacquiao certainly looked like De La Hoya’s strategy that night – but if Pacquiao couldn’t hurt him, then why did Oscar quit on his stool? Why was he cowering in the corner, hanging onto the ropes and doubling over? And didn’t Pacquiao technically knock him out anyway? ‘Nuff said, De La Hoya is a douche.
Is Pacquiao getting sidetracked by his fame and fortune?
Does this look like the body of a distracted man?
Pacquiao has always been big in his home country, the Philippines, but his recent victories over big names have launched his name into the stratosphere, and he is now crossing over with mainstream fame. Naturally, this raises the question of whether Pacquiao has changed, or if he has too much going on, or if he is allowing all this attention, money and glamour go to his head. And if it has, will it affect his performance in the ring?
Pacquiao always has a massive, ever-growing entourage that follows him wherever he goes, so that’s nothing new. He’s also been into politics (which threatens to end his career) for quite some time, so that shouldn’t be a distraction, even though getting calls and invites from politicans all day can mess up your schedule. And as we’ve seen on HBO’s 24/7 series, he also appears on Filipino TV regularly, including live singing performances. He also produces and stars in films, including the superhero movie ‘Wapakman’ in which Pacquiao plays the title character (as seen on 24/7). By the way, did you know he has released albums in the Philippines and he has recently inked a deal to record an album in the US?
Furthermore, now he is appearing more and more frequently in mainstream media, including commercials with Kobe Bryant, his face appearing on the cover of TIME magazine and on giant billboards in San Francisco. He’s also recently been on Jimmy Kimmel Live, a popular talk show.
With so many things happening in Manny’s life, his fans are worried that Pacquiao is not 100% focused on boxing like he should be. And against a dangerous opponent like Miguel Cotto, that could be a fatal mistake. Pacquiao has risen particularly quick the last couple of years, so a fall from grace could be equally devastating in the event of a loss. Freddie Roach believes none of this stuff will affect him though, claiming that once Pacquiao gets into the gym “it’s all business”.
On the other hand, Pacquiao detractors are claiming that Manny is no longer the humble, devout Christian people saw him to be earlier in his career. He has already reportedly admitted to cheating on his wife, and on 24/7 we saw him use profanity at his conditioning coach, not to mention disrespect trainer Freddie Roach by refusing to leave Baguio (where he commenced training). There were also recent reports quoting Manny as saying that Floyd Mayweather Jr didn’t want to fight him (though he has more recently said he is focused solely on Cotto). In my view, this is pointless. Unless he has become so arrogant that he is taking Cotto lightly, whether Pacquiao is a good person or not has no effect on his performance in the ring. It may lose him a few fans, but it’s not going to make him lose to Cotto.
Pacquiao’s disrupted training camp
Reports concerning Pacquiao’s training camp have been mixed. Due to tax reasons, Pacquiao had to commence his training camp for Cotto in Baguio, in the Philippines, as opposed to his usual camp at the Wild Card Gym in California. However, the horrific typhoons that hit later (which caused hundreds of deaths) forced Pacquiao to relocate to Manila. Then, weeks later, the team finally arrived back in California to train at the Wild Card Gym, though jet lag and the time difference forced Pacquiao to sleep away an entire day.
Some people may remember that former champ Michael Moorer was supposed to be gradually taking over Roach’s reigns as the trainer gradually succumbs to Parkinson’s disease. Indeed, Moorer featured regularly in the 24/7 series when Pacquiao fought Hatton. However, it has been revealed that Moorer was fired because he had apparently disrespected some Filipino politicians which didn’t make Manny very happy.
Those who watched 24/7 will also be familiar with the confirmed rift inside his camp between conditioning coach Alex Ariza and advisor Michael Koncz (who seems like a complete douche). It was reported that the two came to blows over who should be in Pacquiao’s corner on the night of the bout. This no doubt provided a giant headache for Pacquiao and Roach. It makes me wonder whether any of these things will have an impact come fight time.
On the other hand, despite the distractions, other reports have been overwhelmingly positive. Some said that Pacquiao was already in fighting shape before he entered training camp, which is a frightening thought. And the word from just about everyone is that Pacquiao continues to be a freak in training, working longer and harder than anyone else in the business. Bob Arum, who promotes both Pacquiao and Cotto, said that while Cotto works hard, compared to Pacquiao it “looks like he’s taking a vacation”.
Just days before the fight, Freddi Roach confirmed that Pacquiao was in peak condition: “Manny told me,’I’m back’,” Roach said on one of their last days before leaving for Las Vegas. “He’s back, no problem, at all. Focus is there, the conditioning was never a problem. We worked everyday. Baguio, Manila, wherever we were. We never missed a day of working out and running and so forth. So we got back here, his running has been really great, boxing’s been really good. He sparred eight rounds the other day, looked really good, 100-percent.”
Regardless of what happens in this fight, both Pacquiao and Roach have said that there will be “no excuses”. (That said, if there really weren’t any ‘distractions’, why say that?)
[Note: I have a feeling that 24/7 has really set out this time to make Pacquiao the 'bad guy' in this fight. Manny's always been the quintessential good guy, so they've attempted to emphasise the distractions, the rifts in the camp, suggesting that Pacquiao had allowed fame to get to his head and has not taken Cotto seriously. On the other hand, Cotto is painted as the 'nice family guy' trying to rebound from a now questionable loss. Think about it - they glossed over Cotto's split with his uncle, who was his former trainer. The slant was 'it was a sad, unfortunate thing', but little was made of the fact that Cotto essentially beat up his uncle. And for all the gossip about Manny Pacquiao's alleged affairs, no one seems to mention that Cotto has a daughter born out of wedlock to another woman. And what's the deal with the subtitles when Pacquiao speaks but none when Cotto speaks? Both are equally hard to understand in my opinion, especially with Cotto's mumbling.]
Miguel Cotto
The Underrated Champion
Apart from the fact that he likes to refer to himself in the third person, I really like Miguel Cotto. He gives me the feel of a brooding warrior, a guy that is relentless and impenetrable. Watching his fights, I can also see he is a very sound technical boxer, with underrated speed and counter-punching abilities. He’s a natural welterweight who is bigger and stronger than Pacquiao. He doesn’t have the explosiveness of Manny, but he has the type of thudding power that wears opponents down and breaks them physically and mentally.
And look at his record, for crying out loud. 34-1 with 27 knockouts, with the sole loss against Margocheato (the man with the loaded gloves). His opponents have not been slouches: Lovemore N’dou, Randall Bailey, DeMarcus Corley, Oktay Urkal, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, Antonio Margarito, Joshua Clottey, just to name a few. Plus he has handed 1st career losses to formerly undefeated fighters such as Carlos Maussa, Kelson Pinto, Ricardo Torres, Paulie Malignaggi and Carlos Quintana. Maybe the lineup is not quite as impressive as Pacquiao’s, but how many boxers out there today can boast such a daunting record against boxers at this level?
Let’s not forget, Cotto is a natural southpaw himself who is very experienced against southpaws and fighters with tremendous speed. He may not have looked good against all of them, but he’s ended up winning all those fights. Now Pacquiao is on a whole other level, but Cotto is about as well equipped to handle it as any other boxer out there.
Is Cotto damaged goods?
Cotto has never trained this hard for a fight
On the other hand, a big question mark has hovered over Cotto ever since that brutal beating he suffered at the hands of Margacheato. We all witnessed the blood pouring down his face as he cowered in the corner, taking a knee to avoid further punishment. Some say that when a boxer takes punishment like that, they’re never the same. Cotto has since defeated Michael Jennings and ground out a tough split decision against Joshua Clottey, but many think he has not been as impressive as he once was. Whether there is any merit in that, I don’t know. Cotto dominated Jennings, and Clottey was as awkward and difficult as they come. It’s hard for anyone to look good against him.
Another issue is Cotto’s fragile skin. He was chopped up badly against Margacheato, and he fought through a nasty cut against Clottey for a big chunk of that fight. Against a southpaw like Pacquiao who likes to jump in, an accidental head clash is not out of the question. Heck, Pacquiao may be able to slice him open with his fists. Hence a technical stoppage on cuts is a real possibility. One thing I do know for sure is that Cotto won’t quit if he suffers a cut. He could have against Clottey but he chose to fight on, and it demonstrates the lion’s heart that he possesses.
Is Cotto’s team too inexperienced?
Cotto used to be trained by his uncle Evangelista, but had a well-publicised falling out which reportedly came to blows. Enter Joe Santiago, a 32-year-old dude who I thought looked more like Cotto’s little cousin than his trainer. He was reportedly Cotto’s conditioning coach, but he’s been referred to as a ‘nutritionist’. He was actually both.
Of course, Cotto will back his trainer, but his Santiago’s inexperience is a glaring issue, especially in comparison to the well-seasoned Freddie Roach. A direct comparison is frightening. Santiago is 32. He has never boxed and never trained a fighter for a bout of this magnitude. He claims he learned the art from observing in a boxing gym in Puerto Rico for 18 years. On the other hand, Freddie Roach is a 49-year-old, World Boxing Hall of Fame inductee, 3-time Trainer of the Year winner (2003, 2006, 2008). He has trained boxers from Mike Tyson to Oscar De La Hoya, from Bernard Hopkins to James Toney, from Amir Khan to Mickey Rourke. Countless world title fights. The contrast is stark.
Santiago’s relative inexperience has been pointed out many times, particularly by Freddie Roach, who has been at his best with the mind games. On the plus side, Santiago and Cotto are close in age and they are good friends. He says he knows Cotto inside out, and can tell what Miguel is saying without having to say a word. Whether that is beneficial or not I’m not sure. Bob Arum said that in Pacquiao’s camp, it is clear that Freddie Roach in the boss. In Cotto’s training camp, Cotto calls the shots.
One other thing that is seldom mentioned is that Cotto used to always train in Puerto Rico, and for the first time they relocated to Tampa for their training camp. This was one of the reasons Cotto and his uncle Evangelista’s relationship soured. I find it interesting that for all the talk about Pacquiao breaking away from tradition by training in the Philippines, not many bothered to mention that Cotto too was breaking from his usual training location.
How will the catch weight affected Cotto?
The fight is regarded as a welterweight bout (which has a limit of 147 pounds), but it will take place at a catch-weight of 145 pounds. All the talk has been about Pacquiao having to down protein shakes just to make weight, but what about Cotto? There have been reports that Cotto has had trouble meeting weight (which carries a Floyd Mayweather-esque penalty per pound), which may explain why his training camp commenced earlier than usual.
I think Cotto’s weight issues are being overlooked. Cotto has not fought below 147 pounds since 2006. If he is weight drained for the fight then he may be in for a very long night (or a very short one). It may not be as blatantly obvious as what happened to De La Hoya, but in a pick ‘em bout like this one, a couple of pounds may tip the balance.
Prediction
Okay, here we go. To be honest even when I started writing this post a few days ago, I could not decide on who is going to win this fight. I keep going through the various factors for and against each fighter, and it seems to balance out quite well. Do I go with the seemingly invincible little man who appears to be in unstoppable form, albeit experiencing issues in his training camp and distractions in life, or the underrated bigger man with the size and strength to bring his opponent back down to earth but has had a question mark over him since a questionable but devastating loss?
Check out these other predictions, such as the one from Ring Magazine in which ten trainers weighed in with their opinions, or the one from ESPN, where present and former fighters put in their 2 cents.
As you can see, opinions are virtually split down the middle. In my view, there are several variables to this fight. If we assume both boxers have had great camps and are in peak form, then the fight will come down to who can execute the best strategy.
I think Pacquiao will respect Cotto’s power and size and utilise his speed to full advantage. I don’t think he will try to fight Cotto toe-to-toe unless he has worn him down or if Cotto is in trouble. Therefore I envisage Pacquiao trying to use his foot and hand speed to frustrate Cotto by going in and out of range, peppering him with rapid blows then turning him to the side, not allowing Cotto to set his feet to land the danger blows. It’s a strategy we’ve seen Pacquiao execute against both De Le Hoya and Cotto and I think we’ll see it again here. If Pacquiao can do that, I see him winning an unanimous decision. However, unless he catches Cotto with a freakish shot like he did against Hatton, I don’t think we’ll see a KO. The much bigger and stronger Margacheato just kept pounding and pounding Cotto with those (potentially) loaded gloves and it took 11 rounds to wear Cotto down. I can’t see that happening in this fight. The chances of the fight being stopped on cuts are much higher.
On the other side of the coin, I think Cotto will apply conventional wisdom and try to impose his size and strength on Pacquaio. Sure, he can stay back and try to counter-punch Pacquiao like Marquez did, but I think he will try and take advantage of his strengths against the smaller man. I believe body shots are the key. If Cotto can load them up and hit Manny with a few of those, Pacquiao will slow. And when he does, Cotto could seriously hurt him, especially if Pacquiao is trapped against the ropes or in the corner. If that happens, Cotto will either knock Manny out or Freddie Roach will throw in the towel to rescue his prized fighter.
At the end of the day, both scenarios (and a whole bunch of other ones) are possible. I believe we are in for a tremendous fight. Both are exciting boxers who want to give fans their money’s worth. The X-factor for me is how the fighters will respond if they find themselves in a bit of trouble, or if things are not going according to plan. This is where I think Pacquiao has the advantage because he has the experience of Freddie Roach in his corner. Not to take anything away from Joe Santiago, who I’m sure is a good strategist in his own right, but Freddie has the proven track record on his side. As Bob Arum said, Freddie is the boss in Pacquiao’s camp, and Manny has been following instructions very well in his last 3 fights. Conversely, Cotto is the boss of Joe Santiago. If their fight plan doesn’t work out as planned, will Cotto listen to the advice of Santiago or will he stick with ‘what Miguel Cotto thinks Miguel Cotto knows best’?
For that reason I still have to go with the Filipino sensation, Manny Pacquiao, by unanimous decision (with a slight chance of a TKO on cuts).
Mayweather dominates Marquez; who’s next? September 20, 2009
Posted by pacejmiller in Boxing.Tags: Analysis, decision, Floyd Mayweather, Floyd Mayweather Jr, JMM, Juan Manuel Marquez, Manny Pacquiao, Miguel Cotto, result, Shane Mosley
2 comments
Floyd Mayweather Jr made a triumphant return to the ring last night, dominating a game but outclassed Juan Manuel Marquez over 12 one-sided rounds. The judges had it 120-107, 119-108 and 118-109, all in favour of ‘Money’, but some ringsiders say the judges actually did Marquez a favour by giving him a couple of rounds. Mayweather’s record remained unblemished at 40-0 (25 KOs), while Marquez fell to 50-5-1 (37 KOs).
Before the fight, much talk surrounded the significant size advantage Mayweather had on Marquez, especially after Floyd had to raise the contract weight from 144 to 147 pounds the day before the fight. He officially weighed in at 146 pounds, whereas Marquez weighed only 142. Floyd also refused to be weighed on the day of the fight, leading to speculation that he must have had more than 10 pounds on Marquez by the time they stepped into the ring.
In the end, it didn’t matter. Not only was Mayweather bigger and stronger than Marquez, he was also faster, more accurate and significantly better defensively. Marquez didn’t stand a chance.
Now all attention turns to Manny Pacquiao’s bout with Miguel Cotto on November 14th, with the winner (especially if it is Pacquiao) likely to be Floyd’s next opponent, provided the negotiators can reach an agreement. Of course, waiting on the sidelines is welterweight champ Sugar Shane Mosley, who called out Mayweather ‘Kayne West-style’ in the ring after the bout last night (see more below).
Fight Analysis
At the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on 19 September 2009, Floyd Mayweather Jr put on a superb tactical performance against Juan Manuel Marquez, who did everything he could but just couldn’t do anything effective against his bigger, younger, faster opponent. The crowd was very much pro-Marquez, with excited oohs and aahs ringing throughout the arena every time Marquez threw a punch that looked like it was close to landing (and this was rare). However, they couldn’t spur their man to victory. Mayweather showed little rust from the layoff, demonstrating the deadly speed and precision that we’re used to seeing from him, and leaving Marquez and his trainer Nacho Beristain with no answers.
As expected, Mayweather was slightly cautious in the first round, jabbing and moving while spending most of the time surveying his opponent. In the second round, Marquez landed a big right hand that brought a smile to Mayweather’s face. He returned the favour in dramatic fashion, landing a left hook and then adding another one shortly after that put Marquez flat on his backside. From there, the fight was all Mayweather, who was simply superb in attacking and defending from all angles. Left jab to the head, left jab to the body. Lunging lead left hook. Left and right hand counters. Block, cover up, roll, fend, tie-up. And if all else fails, run. Even when Marquez tried to rally with wild combos, Mayweather always appeared in complete control, picking off each punch as though he was toying with his outmatched opponent.
Mayweather was better than Marquez in every respect
The first few rounds, if you don’t look closely and if you discount the second round knockdown, don’t appear that dominant. But if you paid attention or if you saw the punch stats, you would have seen that Floyd was putting on a boxing clinic. Marquez just couldn’t get off, and the few punches he did land, Mayweather shrugged them off with a smile. Marquez’s face, apart from becoming more bruised and battered as the fight wore on, was filled with both anger and frustration – at his own inability to do anything against his opponent. To his credit, even though he was receiving the beating of his life, stuck through it and never gave up till the final bell. No matter how many times he got hit, no matter how many of his shots were blocked or evaded, Marquez just kept coming. And if he was hurt, he certainly didn’t show it. A true warrior.
Punch stats were devastating. Mayweather landed 290 of 493 punches, a staggering 59%. Conversely, Marquez, who actually threw more punches, landed just 69 of 583, an abysmal 12%. Power punch stats were almost equally bewildering, with Mayweather landing 105 out of 177 (59%) and Marquez landing only 48 out of 295 (16%). To really put things in perspective, there was not a single round where Marquez landed more than 8 punches, and in each of rounds 1, 2, 5 and 10, he only landed 4. If Mayweather isn’t right up there as one of the greatest defensive boxers of all time, then I don’t know who is.
After 21 months out of the ring, I had forgotten just how good Floyd Mayweather was. Though I predicted him to win, I had mistakenly expected the fight to be much closer given his ‘retirement’, as well as his financial, legal and family issues. As proven last night, Floyd’s instincts and reflexes are unparalleled – he is simultaneously sharp and awkward, and almost impossible to figure out within 12 rounds. He knows when to slip in and when to slip out, when to attack and when to defend.
However, watching this fight, you understand why Floyd, even if you discount his douchebag antics, isn’t a more popular fighter. First, he doesn’t like to take risks or engage unless he has to. He was beating Marquez around the ring all night and even scored a knockdown, but he refused to go for the kill and hand Marquez the first knockout loss of his career. As part of his sublime defence, Floyd backpedals, runs, and sometimes looks like a frightened child cowering from a rabid dog. Technically, he is brilliant, but for people who like to see action, they’d much rather watch Manny Pacquiao. Which is probably why his fight with Marquez, though more exciting than I had anticipated, was considered a snoozer by many who saw it.
Size and weight mattered
It wouldn’t have made any difference to the end result, but the size and weight played a decisive factor in how the fight panned out.
Floyd Mayweather downplayed the size and weight difference from the moment the fight was made and continued even in the post-fight interviews, reminding everyone that he too was once a small fighter (albeit many many years ago). On the other hand, whether intentionally or no, he did everything he could to maximize his size advantage, to the point where he was willing to pay money to come in a few pounds overweight against a guy who was a few pounds off the initial catch-weight limit. If he weighed 146 lbs the day before the fight, how much did he weigh on the day? 155? 160? More? We’ll never know because Mayweather refused to be re-weighed, which only adds fuel to speculation that he didn’t want people to know just how big of an advantage he had.
That said, I don’t think it was Mayweather’s weight that ultimately made the difference – it was Marquez’s. He just wasn’t himself at that weight. He was visibly pudgier around the middle, something we had never seen before. He was always a step slower. Perhaps his age, at 36, had suddenly caught up with him, and his reflexes weren’t as sharp as they used to be (see De la Hoya). Perhaps he overtrained for the fight because of the 2-month delay. And don’t forget, it was his first fight at that weight, two classes above his previous high. Not that any of these things could have changed the result – but it could have at least made the fight more competitive. Excuses? Maybe, but I believe Marquez’s body simply didn’t belong in the welterweight division. Unlike his rival Manny Pacquiao, Marquez’s body maxed out at lightweight. Any weight above that became detrimental to his performance in the ring, and last night, it showed.
Around the ring
Shane Mosley wants a piece of Floyd Mayweather Jr
Some Mayweather detractors claim that the most exciting part of the night was when Shane Mosley entered the ring during Mayweather’s interview with Max Kellerman and challenged Mayweather to a fight right then and there. In response, Floyd said he was not afraid of anyone and would let his managers decide his fights (contrary to what he has said before), before Shane continued to run his mouth and the two had to be separated. Let’s hope Mosley really did get under Mayweather’s skin and the two of them will get it on, though I don’t think it will happen – not unless Manny Pacquiao loses to Miguel Cotto – because the pay day Mayweather will receive from a bout with Pacquiao will dwarf anything he can get from Mosley.
Another interesting tidbit was that Floyd Mayweather Sr was not in his son’s corner for the fight. Instead, he spent the night dressed in a loud black suit with gold trim, looking somewhat displeased in the crowd. After the fight he continued to dismiss Manny Pacquiao, saying that the Filipino was not in the same league as his son. And perhaps, in a poor attempt to try and get himself back into his son’s corner, claimed that Floyd could be a lot better than he showed in the fight. Hint hint.
Can Pacquiao beat him?
No disrespect to Miguel Cotto, but boxing fans (including myself) are already looking forward to a salivating showdown between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao in the first half of 2010. Mayweather’s camp (Roger and Floyd Sr) have been dissing Pacquiao for ages, perhaps a sign of their jealousy at Pacquiao’s popularity. In response, Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach dissed Mayweather by saying that he would be an ‘easier’ opponent than both Cotto and Mosley.
I bet a lot of people are now saying, given the way Marquez fought Pacquiao in their two wars and the way he was handled by Mayweather last night, that Manny would not stand a chance against Floyd. I disagree with that assessment. Much like the way I disagreed that Floyd would be no match for Manny after Pacquiao knocked out both De la Hoya and Hatton in more spectacular fashion. While he will be the underdog, I believe apart from Shane Mosley, Manny Pacquiao has the best chance of cutting down Mayweather.
Take the Mosley-Cotto-Margarito trio for example. When Mosley lost to Cotto in a tight decision and then Cotto got mauled by Margarito, few gave Mosley a chance when he went up against the big welterweight. And yet Mosley absolutely slaughtered Margarito when they stepped into the ring. Not to say it is comparable to the Mayweather-Pacquiao-Marquez scenario, but it does demonstrate that styles do indeed make fights.
I believe the Manny Pacquiao of now (as opposed to the one that battled Marquez) has a realistic chance of putting a loss on Mayweather’s record. It’s a mistake to dwell too much on those two fights with Marquez. First, the fights were at a featherweight and superfeatherweight (126 and 130 lbs), weights that suited Marquez a lot more than it did Pacquiao, who was seriously struggling to make weight (don’t forget, Pacquiao’s first two losses were after he failed to make weight). Pacquiao is now at a weight he is comfortable with (140-147lbs), and he has filled out his new body well without losing any of the speed and explosiveness he had at the lower weight classes. Secondly, Marquez has a style that matches up well with Pacquiao’s aggression. As Roach said, they could fight a hundred times and each time it would turn out the same. Thirdly, and most importantly, Pacquiao has improved dramatically. He’s no longer the reckless, jab-jab-cross fighter that was sometimes too one-dimensional for the elite technicians. Watch his fights against Marquez and compare them to his bouts with Diaz, De la Hoya and Hatton. He has shown so much more versatility, more discipline and more skill than the Pacquiao of old. Dare I say even more power. And let’s not forget, the Pacquiao of old still knocked Marquez down 4 times in 2 fights. If they fought at welterweight now, I have no doubt Pacquiao would win and probably knock Marquez out.
Stylistically, Mayweather would cause Pacquiao problems, but the same can be said about any fighter Mayweather faces. Pacquiao is one of a handful of fighters that has comparable hand and foot speed to Mayweather and the discipline to stick to a game plan. Further, Manny (30) is younger than Floyd (32) and is a natural southpaw with KO power in both hands. And Freddie Roach believes he has the perfect game plan for beating Mayweather, one that was half-executed by Oscar De la Hoya until he forgot to use his jab.
Everyone wants to see Pacquiao-Mayweather
Of course, even if he is a welterweight, Pacquiao is the naturally smaller fighter and Mayweather has a 5 inch reach advantage on him (72 to 67), and while he has improved defensively, Pacquiao’s defence is just not in the same class. What he does have going for him though is that relentless agression and pressure which Mayweather has never faced before, and the punching power to saw through that seemingly impenetrable defence. And if he does, Mayweather could find himself in trouble.
Will the fight be made?
All of this is just speculation. Can a fight between Mayweather and Pacquiao actually be made? As usual, money is the primary obstacle. Top Rank took a step back and offered a 50-50 purse split after Freddie Roach and Bob Arum initially said Pacquiao deserved 60-40. All of this was before Floyd’s masterful domination of Marquez, of course. However, even at 50-50, Mayweather was non-commital. The key is how Pacquiao performs against Miguel Cotto. If he can blast him out of the ring like he did against Hatton and De la Hoya, AND the fight performs better than Mayweather-Marquez, then 50-50 sounds about right, though I can see Top Rank take a little less in order to get Mayweather to sign.
Although PPV records are not public yet, Mayweather-Marquez was slow to sell, with apparently more than 1,500 unsold tickets just days out from the fight. Pacquiao-Cotto, on the other hand, already only has around 500 tickets left, and are sure to sell out well in advance of the fight. So far, advantage Pacquiao.
[Update: Shockingly, Mayweather-Marquez did over 1 million PPV buys! This was when most analysts believed 600,000 was being optimistic. I guess Mayweather really has a solid claim to the lion's share of the purse if he fights Pacquiao. That said, I am still not convinced that Pacquiao will breeze through Cotto. If Manny has not put 100% effort into his training and Cotto is not affected by the drop to the catch-weight of 145 pounds, then he could be in for a rude shock against the bigger, stronger slugger.]
Prediction: Mayweather Jr vs Marquez September 18, 2009
Posted by pacejmiller in Boxing.Tags: Floyd Mayweather Jr, JMM, Juan Manuel Marquez, Manny Pacquiao, Marquez, Mayweather, Pacquiao, prediction, Ricky Hatton, tale of the tape
3 comments
[For more updated news on Mayweather-Pacquiao, see this newer post]
The eagerly anticipated showdown between Floyd Mayweather Jr and Juan Manuel Marquez is almost upon us, so I thought I would throw in my two cents on how I think the fight will pan out.
Just about everybody thinks Mayweather, who has been out since knocking out Ricky Hatton in December 2007, will win the fight and probably knock out Marquez. However, I think there are a lot more variables to this fight than people are assuming, and any one of them may impact the outcome. Let’s have a look.
Tape of the Tape
Here’s the released tale of the tape of the two fighters.
I dunno, but it looks a little fishy to me. When Mayweather fought De La Hoya, he was listed as 5 foot 8.75 (see here for proof). All of a sudden he’s grown shorter to only 5 foot 7.5? Mmm…looks like some people are desperate to downplay the size difference.
Does this look like a half-inch height difference to you?
Will size matter?
Mayweather is regarded as an overwhelming favourite against a great pound-for-pound fighter like Marquez because of their difference in size. Marquez, the naturally smaller man, has fought at featherweight (126 lbs), super featherweight (130 lbs) and lightweight (135 lbs). This fight will take place at 144 lbs, a catch weight below the welterweight limit of 147 lbs. On the other hand, while the larger Mayweather commenced his career at super featherweight, he has fought as high as super welterweight (154 lbs). His last bout with Ricky Hatton in December 2007 was at welterweight.
Conventional boxing wisdom says that a good big man will always beat a great little man. In this case, you’ve got a great little man going up against a supreme bigger man. Putting aside the height issue above, it is clear from any photo with both fighters that there is a distinct size advantage in favour of Mayweather. Interestingly, although Mayweather has been recorded as stating at Marquez and Pacquiao are ‘too small’ to beat him, he has recently really tried to downplay the size advantage because people have been calling it a mismatch (and he really wants to sell tickets).
Going up in weight in boxing is more difficult than it appears. Sometimes a few pounds here or there can make a huge difference in the ring. Marquez will no doubt need to build up more muscle while trying to maintain his speed. Take a page out of Pacquiao’s book on how to do that well. Now, going down in weight can be difficult for fighters too (eg Oscar de la Hoya and Roy Jones Jr), but I doubt it will affect Mayweather, who never strays too far from his fighting weight and was training even before announcing his comeback.
So does size really matter? Everyone said size would play a factor when Pacquaio fought De la Hoya and Hatton, and look how those fights turned out. But that was Pacquiao, who had an insane speed advantage over both opponents. Even as the smaller man, Marquez is probably considered to be at a disadvantage when it comes to speed in this fight. De la Hoya (Marquez’s promoter) said that Marquez can win because he has a solid jab and that will neutralize the size difference. But then again, De la Hoya is a hack with no credibility whatsoever because he is willing to spew out any crap necessary to talk up his fighter and sell the fight.
My guess is that size can be a crucial factor, but it depends on whether Mayweather wants to impose himself as the aggressor or is content with staying back as he usually does.
Will the layoff affect Mayweather?
Form is something that is often overlooked in boxing. When Mayweather enters the ring on Saturday night, it will be his first time since December 2007. 21 months is a long time to be away from any sport, leaving people questioning whether Mayweather will lose a step or some of that sharpness he is known for. Conversely, there are those out there (Mayweather included) that believe his time away from the sport will actually make him better. He was tired of it all and had nagging injuries to deal with all the time, so perhaps the layoff will help him improve both body and mind. Only time will tell.
Mayweather hasn't fought since knocking out Ricky Hatton in December 2007
On the other hand, there is no doubt that Marquez is an in-form fighter, having disposed of solid boxers (Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz) by knockout in his last two fights. However, those fights were at lightweight, and he hasn’t fought for almost 7 months himself.
Will the rib injury affect Mayweather?
Mayweather and Marquez were originally set to meet 2 months ago in July, but the fight had to be postponed as Mayweather suffered a rib injury during training. The exact cause of the injury has never been revealed, though there were hints that Mayweather must have been hit during sparring. Either way, there are now question marks over Floyd’s ribs. Have they healed completely? Are they more likely to be re-injured? Will Marquez now target the body?
Freddie Roach, Manny Pacquiao’s trainer, has gone on record saying that he believes the key to beating Mayweather is to pound the body. It will be interesting to see if Marquez has a similar plan, especially now that Floyd’s ribs may in fact be a weakness.
Will the postponement affect either fighter?
The 2-month postponement may also have an effect on the fighters. In Mayweather’s case, there are questions over whether 2 months was long enough for him to get under weight and into proper fighting shape. If Mayweather is not 100% prepared for the fight, especially after such a long layoff, Marquez may be able to take advantage.
In Marquez’s case, there are questions over whether 2 months is too long. Marquez has essentially trained 5 months for this fight, an extraordinarily long period by any fighter’s standards. Will the extra time allow him to get into even better shape or will it tire him out before the fight?
Will out of the ring issues affect Mayweather?
As much as Mayweather likes to avoid answering, there are questions over his out-of-ring issues. For starters, the constant family struggle between his trainer uncle Roger Mayweather and his father Floyd Mayweather Sr. Stuff like that may seem harmless, but it inevitably takes its toll.
Secondly, and most importantly, the financial troubles we keep hearing about. Floyd can deny it all he wants, but it hasn’t stopped the stories from swirling around. Recently it was reported that Mayweather is being sued for more than $167,000 for a loan on a luxury car. Further, he has an unresolved lien with the IRS for $6.17 million in unpaid taxes dating back to 2007. Even the trash collector is saying that Mayweather hasn’t been paying his bills.
Thirdly, in August, guns, bullets and vests were seized from Mayweather’s home and cars in relation to a shooting. While Floyd himself was not charged, having the police knock on your door less than one month from a major fight can be unsettling.
Mayweather has always been the consummate professional inside the ring, but one wonders whether these outside distractions will finally get to him some day.
Will drinking his own urine affect Marquez?
Weird reports have surfaced that Marquez drinks his own urine. No, not because he likes the taste – it’s to help him replenish nutrients he has literally pissed away. In his own words: “I also drink my urine because that’s where a lot of proteins and vitamins are, part of your vitamin intake, and why not drink them again instead of wasting them?”
Yes kids: Marquez drinks urine...at least it's his own
Experts say that it certainly can’t hurt him, but I hope it doesn’t leave a bad taste in his mouth after the fight (pun intended). But hey, if Marquez has the balls to drink his own piss, getting punched a few times in the head probably seems like nothing! Then again, perhaps this demonstrates that Marquez has already been punched in the head a few times too many…
Prediction
Around the net, analysts are almost unanimously predicting a Mayweather stoppage in the later rounds. Mayweather is just too big, too skilled, too fast, they say. While this may indeed be the case, I can see this fight going the distance.
Marquez only has 4 losses and a draw, and all of them are debatable (including a disqualification in his pro debut), especially the 2 controversial decisions against Manny Pacquiao. He has also never been knocked out, though he has been knocked down plenty of times (including 3 times in just the first round against Pacquiao in their first bout). Marquez has the heart of a lion and he truly wants to prove that he is the best fighter in the world and deserving of bigger pay days. If just a couple of the factors above end up having an effect on Mayweather, Marquez could easily steal the fight in a decision. The key is for Marquez, a typically slow starter, to go for it right from the beginning.
However, Mayweather is not recognised as the (former) pound-for-pound fighter on the planet without reason. Say what you want about Floyd’s opponents, but the fact is he is undefeated, and his only questionable win against Jose Luis Castillo was with a bum shoulder, and to his credit he took the rematch and dismantled Castillo with ease the second time round. Moreover, if Mayweather really needs the money, he’ll need to win this fight to have a chance of taking on Manny Pacquiao for the mega pay day (and according to recent reports, both camps are willing to negotiate in good faith provided they win their upcoming fights).
So my prediction: Mayweather to win via a closer-than-expected unanimous decision. I believe Mayweather, in his first bout back, will fight a cautious fight, whereas Marquez, with nothing to lose, will come out with guns blazing. While I don’t doubt his ability to escape with an upset, the chips are just too heavily stacked in Mayweather’s favour to bet against him.
Though Marquez is considered a ‘technician’, he hasn’t been too hard to hit, especially by his more recent opponents. Floyd is known for his pin-point accuracy and will no doubt exploit any holes in Marquez’s defence. Both fighters have the ability to adjust mid-fight, but Marquez is the one here with more of a reason to be the aggressor, which I believe could ultimately put him in trouble.
I also expect this fight to be a bit of a disappoinment in terms of excitement. With two natural counter-punchers going head to head, I’m preparing myself for a lot of lulls and dull moments. I hope they can prove me wrong.
Who I WANT to win
Both Mayweather and Marquez want a crack at this guy (or at least the money a fight with him will make)
I’m a bit confused with this one. I want Marquez to win because Mayweather is a douche. Not Kayne West douche, but a douche nonetheless. I always thought Floyd’s on-screen persona was just for show, but he seems to carry it off with too much consistency for me to believe that he’s a completely different person in private.
Take for instance Floyd’s most recent interview with ESPN, where he claimed that race is the reason he is not more rich and popular. He says: “Imagine if I was the same fighter that I am, and I was the same person that I am, and I was from another country. Can you just imagine how big I’d be?…If Floyd Mayweather was white, I’d be the biggest athlete in America. The biggest, the biggest. I know that for a fact.”
It’s not uncommon for athletes to have an inflated image of themselves (see Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame speech), but Floyd is simply delusional. America’s biggest athlete if he were white? What about Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson, Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James (the list goes one) – the last I checked they were all still black. Floyd needs to realise that the true reason he’s not liked more is because he’s a douche, and that no one really cares about boxing anymore.
Oh, and Floyd’s fan chat on ESPN? Floyd was 7 minutes late and spent a whole 9 minutes in the chatroom, answering a grand total of 9 questions with no more than a sentence per answer. And he wonders why he isn’t more popular.
However, none of these things affect my opinion of Mayweather as a boxer. The guy is the real deal, and because of that, I want him to win so he can finally give the fans what they want and fight Manny Pacquiao. So whichever way the fight goes on Saturday night, I’ll be happy.
[BREAKING NEWS! The weigh-in was a shocker, with Floyd Mayweather Jr weighing 146 lbs, 2 lbs over the agreed catch-weight of 144 lbs. The surprise had lawyers from both sides scrambling the night before to rework the contracts to change the contract weight from 144 lbs to the welterweight limit of 147 lbs. Marquez, who weighed only 142 pounds, accepted the amendment, but Floyd will now have to pay an additional $600,000 to Marquez ($300,000 per pound) on top of his $3.2 million guarantee (Mayweather is guaranteed $10 million).
So what does this mean for the fight? For starters, Mayweather's size advantage will be more apparent. They looked almost the same height at the weigh-in, but Marquez was in sneakers whereas Floyd was in his socks. However, the weight difference on the night of the fight might be around 10 pounds (or more) judging from current circumstances. That's more than a whole weight class in boxing terms.
On the other hand, Floyd's inability to meet weight may be a sign that some of the factors mentioned in this post have proven to be a distraction. Perhaps his body has changed during the layoff, or perhaps he wasn't as dedicated as he used to be in training, or perhaps he's just not taking Marquez seriously. 2 lbs is no accident, and I wonder whether Marquez would be more concerned about the increased weight difference or be rubbing his hands as now he knows Mayweather has a definite chink in his armour. That said, I'm going to stick by my original prediction and go with Floyd by decision.]
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